Worried savers look for other options as interest rates fall
금리 하락에 불안한 예금자들… 더 나은 수익 찾기 ‘대안 투자’로 눈길
뉴질랜드 중앙은행(RBNZ)이 공식현금금리(OCR)를 추가 인하할 것으로 예고되면서 모기지 대출자들에게는 반가운 소식이지만, 예금자들에게는 사정이 다르다.
금리 하락이 본격화되자 예·적금에 머물던 자금이 더 나은 수익을 찾아 이동하려는 움직임이 뚜렷해지고 있다. 전문가들은 “대안 투자 선택 시 반드시 위험도를 이해해야 한다”고 경고한다.
현재 뉴질랜드 가계가 보유한 저축예금은 805억 달러, 정기예금은 1,440억 달러에 달한다. 그러나 금리 정점이었던 시기와 비교하면 1년 만기 정기예금 금리는 6%를 넘던 것이 이제 3.5% 수준으로 급락했다. 2년 만기 역시 5.75%에서 3.5% 안팎으로 내려앉았다.
중앙은행(RBNZ) 통계에 따르면 보너스 금리를 포함한 조건부 예금 평균 금리는 4.5% 이상이었으나 지금은 2% 미만으로 떨어졌고, 조건 없는 일반 예금은 평균 1.5% 미만, 어떤 상품은 1%에도 못 미친다.
파이 펀드(Pie Funds) 아나-마리 록이어 경영자는 “실질 금리(인플레이션 조정 후) 기준으로 정기예금 수익률이 사실상 마이너스라는 점을 깨닫는 투자자들이 늘고 있다”며 “장기적으로 더 나은 수익을 원하는 이들이 현금과 정기예금을 넘어서는 대안을 찾고 있다”고 전했다.
그러나 “현금을 떠나는 모든 움직임은 신중해야 한다. 현금, 보수적 펀드, 기타 투자상품은 각각 위험 수준과 적합한 투자 기간이 다르다. 투자 목표·기간·위험 감수 성향에 맞는 결정을 내려야 한다”고 강조했다.
MAS(의료보험공제조합) 조 맥컬리 경영자는 “정기예금과 달리 조기 인출 시 불이익이 없는 ‘관리형 현금 펀드(cash fund)’가 대안이 될 수 있다”며 “유동성과 상대적으로 낮은 위험, 더 높은 수익 가능성을 동시에 제공한다”고 설명했다. 실제 MAS 현금 펀드는 최근 6개월간 신규 투자가 35% 급증했다.
커널(Kernel) 창립자 딘 앤더슨는 “정기예금 잔액은 여전히 사상 최고 수준에 가깝지만 증가세는 확실히 멈췄다”며 “만기 도래 시 재투자 대신 다른 곳으로 이동하는 흐름이 본격화할 것”이라고 내다봤다.
그는 “특히 이자 소득에 의존하는 은퇴자층은 세금과 물가 상승을 감안하면 실질 수익이 거의 없다시피 하다”며 “주택 시장은 주춤하고, 주식 시장은 고점 논란이 이어지는 상황에서 ‘도대체 돈을 어디에 넣어야 하나’ 하는 투자자 심리 때문에 아직 정기예금 잔액이 크게 줄지 않는 것”이라고 분석했다.
앤더슨는 “크리스마스 연말연초까지는 많은 이들이 결정을 미루고 ‘모래 속에 머리를 파묻는’ 식으로 보낼 가능성이 크지만, 내년 새해 들어서는 본격적으로 움직임이 나올 것”이라며 “특히 큰 금액이라면 반드시 재무 상담을 받으라”고 당부했다. “과거 성과나 자극적인 헤드라인에 휩쓸려 FOMO(기회 상실 공포) 투자했다가 낭패를 보는 경우가 많다”는 경고도 덧붙였다.
피셔 펀드(Fisher Funds) 로빈 콘웨이 관리펀드 총괄은 “요즘 관리형 펀드(upper-risk managed funds)에 대해 문의하는 고객이 크게 늘었다”면서도 “정기예금과 관리형 펀드는 운용 방식과 위험도가 완전히 다르다. 정기예금에 익숙한 투자자가 펀드로 바로 넘어갈 때는 반드시 자문받아야 한다”고 강조했다.
그는 “관리형 펀드는 주식 시장에 투자하기 때문에 단기 변동성이 크고, 목표한 수익을 얻으려면 일정 기간 이상 묵혀둬야 한다. 확정성과 단기 투자를 원한다면 정기예금이 여전히 맞지만, 중장기 목표가 뚜렷하다면 관리형 펀드도 충분히 고려할 만한 옵션”이라고 조언했다.
결국 전문가들은 한목소리로 “지금은 금리만 보고 섣불리 움직일 때가 아니다. 자신의 재무 상황과 위험 감내 능력을 냉정히 따져보고, 필요하면 전문가 상담을 반드시 거치라”고 당부하고 있다.
Worried savers look for other options as interest rates fall
Falling interest rates are driving savers to look for other ways to get a better return on their money – but there’s a warning that they should understand the risks they are taking.
The Reserve Bank is expected to cut the official cash rate on Wednesday, which is good news for home loan borrowers but not so good for savers.
Households have $80.5 billion in savings accounts and $144b in term deposits. But from interest rate peaks, one-year term deposits have fallen from offering more than 6 percent to 3.5 percent.
Two-year rates have fallen from 5.75 percent to about 3.5 percent. Savings account rates have fallen from an average of more than 4.5 percent for conditional saving accounts including bonuses, according to the Reserve Bank, to less than 2 percent.
Unconditional savings account rates are now offering less than 1.5 percent on average – and much less in some cases.
Ana-Marie Lockyer, chief executive of Pie Funds, said her organisation was seeing increased interest from investors wondering what might give them a better return.
“With term-deposit rates falling in real terms, many investors are recognising that once inflation is taken into account, they’re effectively going backwards. That’s prompting some to look beyond traditional cash and term deposits in search of better long-term outcomes.
“At the same time, any move out of cash needs to be made carefully. Cash and conservative funds – or even other investments – each carry different levels of risk and are suited to different investment horizons. The key is ensuring investors are making decisions aligned with their goals, timeframes, and appetite for risk – not just reacting to the interest-rate environment. Our role is to help people navigate those choices so they can stay positioned for long-term financial wellbeing.”
MAS chief executive Jo McCauley said cash funds could be an option.
“Unlike term deposits, which lock money away and may penalise early withdrawals, a managed cash fund provides members with flexibility, potential for higher returns, and low risk – making them an attractive alternative for savers.”
She said there had been a 35 percent increase in new cash fund investments over the past six months.
Dean Anderson, founder of Kernel, said while term deposit balances were still near record highs, the growth had clearly stabilised. He said as people rolled off fixed rates they might wonder what to do.
“What you tend to find is term deposits, because they are locked up they tend to have a bit of a lag and then people tend to roll them into something else… what you see first is people pulling out of on-call savings accounts because they are more accessible and interest rates are falling.”
He said people who were reliant on interest income would need to look at other options. “If you are looking at rates that are 3 percent and then you take out tax and inflation you’re probably not getting a return that is going to meet your income needs.”
But he said there was no easy solution for investors. “We’ve got a housing market that’s flattened down, you’ve got a lot of media headlines that are talking about peaks in the share market and they’re probably thinking ‘where do I put my money?’ which may be why there is still this lag in term deposits coming down or savings because people are in that paralysis state and don’t know what else to do.”
He said people might “bury their heads in the sand” through Christmas and then think about it in the new year,
“I think the key call out here is, if they’re feeling concerned or it’s a bigger balance, financial advice is really key to help with this process.
“I think you’ve got to be cautious that they don’t just sort of jump on something as a FOMO (fear of missing out) because they’ve, you know, seen a great headline or past performance.”
Fisher Funds general manager of managed funds Robyn Conway said she was seeing a lot of people wanting to have conversations about managed funds and whether they were a suitable option.
“But term deposits as a comparison to managed funds are quite different in terms of how they operate.
“It is important that if someone is invested in a term deposit that they do speak to an adviser and ensure that a managed fund is right for them.
“Typically with a managed fund you’ll be investing for a certain period of time in order to reach the goals that you’re after from an investment perspective. And because they’re invested in share markets you do have to be aware of market volatility and there is a higher risk with managed funds as opposed to a term deposit which is more stable and people like that stability. If they are after certainty and a much shorter time frame for an investment, then a term deposit might be suitable but in saying that depending on what their goals are and what they are looking to achieve within a certain time period then a managed fund might be a good option to consider.”