NZ house sale profits in 2025: Who enjoyed the biggest gains and the biggest losses
2025년 뉴질랜드 주택 재판매 이익: 최대 수익자와 최대 손실자는 누구?
부동산 조사 결과에 따르면 2025년 뉴질랜드 주택 시장에서는 크라이스트처치를 포함한 전국 다수 지역에서 주택 소유주들의 손실이 광범위하게 나타난 것으로 집계됐다.
OneRoof와 데이터 파트너인 Valocity가 2021년부터 2025년까지의 주거용 주택 거래를 분석한 결과, 총 이익을 본 재판매와 총 손실을 본 재판매 비율을 확인했다. 연구에 따르면 코로나19 이후의 열광적인 고점 이후 재판매 이익은 대부분 줄어들었다.
전국 재판매자들의 중간 이익은 2021년 포스트 코로나 시장 최고점 당시 34만3000달러에서 2025년 25만 달러로 하락했다.
오클랜드와 웰링턴이 가장 큰 타격을 입었으나, 일부 지역은 좋은 성과를 보였다. 예상대로 뉴질랜드에서 가장 부유한 마을인 퀸스타운이 최고를 기록했으며, 사우스랜드와 함께 캔터베리, 웨스트 코스트도 하락세를 비껴갔다.
그러나 데이터는 5년 기간 동안 전국 재판매 손실 비율이 1%에서 12%로 상승했으며, 중간 손실액은 1만1000달러에서 5만 달러로 4배 증가한 것으로 나타났다.
일부 주택은 상당한 이익을 봤다. 예를 들어 헌베이의 한 저택은 거의 10년 보유 기간 후 1100만 달러 이익을 기록했다.
웨누아파이의 한 부동산은 8년 보유 후 판매 가격 대비 450만 달러 손실을 봤으나, Valocity의 선임 연구 분석가 웨인 셤은 이는 2017년 오클랜드 북서부 마을이 본격 개발되기 전에 구입한 토지 은행화가 잘못된 탓일 수 있다고 설명했다.
“대규모 개발 부지의 경우 ‘도박’이라는 단어를 쓰고 싶지는 않지만, 인프라가 부족하거나 시의회 계획이 예상대로 진행되지 않을 때가 있다.”
셤은 2019년 코로나19가 뉴질랜드에 상륙하기 전 주택 시장이 약 5% 상승하며 평범한 해였으나, 2020년 봉쇄 조치와 금리 인하, LVR(대출비율제한) 완화가 시장 20% 급등에 기여했다고 지적했다.
다음 해에도 시장은 상승세를 이어갔고, 봉쇄로 인해 소비가 증가하며 많은 사람이 부동산에 눈을 돌렸다.
“시장에 모두가 매료됐고, 2021년 내내 급등하다 2022년에 정점을 찍었다. 실질적으로 3년간 좋은 해가 겹쳐 약 40% 성장을 이뤘다.”
좋았던 해에는 주택으로 손해를 보는 사람이 거의 없었으나, 시장 정점 이후 “평균 이하의 저조한 해”가 이어지면서 올해 재판매 손실이 증가했다.
오클랜드와 웰링턴에서는 올해 손실 재판매 비율이 거의 20%에 달했으며, 2021년에는 1%에 불과했다.
두 도시의 중간 재판매 손실은 7만 달러를 조금 넘었으며, 이는 2021년 미미한 손실과 큰 대조를 이룬다. 같은 기간 중간 재판매 이익은 약 40% 줄었다.
셤은 이 수치가 부분적으로 뉴질랜드 최대 도시들의 높은 가격대를 반영한다고 말했다. 현재 오클랜드 평균 가격은 약 125만 달러, 2022년 시장 정점 이후 최악의 성과를 보인 웰링턴은 100만 달러에 가깝다.
웰링턴은 엄청난 붐을 겪은 후 큰 붕괴를 맞았다. “공공 부문 감원은 분명 도움이 되지 않았다”고 셤은 말했다. 그러나 그는 손실을 너무 부정적으로 해석하지 말라고 경고했다. 대부분 사람들이 같은 시장에서 사고판다는 점 때문이다.
“자녀 둘이 있고 더 큰 집으로 이사하려면 판매에서 3만 달러 손실을 볼 수 있지만, 이사 갈 집도 가격이 내려간다.”
보유 기간도 중요했다. 데이터에 따르면 가장 큰 손실을 본 사람들은 약 4년 보유 후 판매한 경우로, 시장 정점 무렵 구입한 것으로 보인다. “일반적으로 부동산 보유 기간이 길수록 나쁜 일이 없으면 더 많은 이익을 볼 가능성이 크다.”
오클랜드에서 시장 정점에 “터무니없는” 가격으로 대형 부지를 산 개발업자들은 7채 이상의 타운하우스를 지을 계획이었으나, 타운하우스 시장 반전으로 어려움을 겪었다. “그 부지 가치가 이제 떨어졌다. 일부는 손실을 실현해야 했다.”
2023년 기념일 주말 홍수의 영향도 있었다고 셤은 말했다. “2025년에 시의회 사이트에 들어가 보면 ‘이제 홍수 위험이 있다’고 나온다. 하지만 5년 전에는 많은 사람에게 걱정거리가 아니었다.
“이제 완전히 투명해졌다. ‘여기서는 홍수가 난 적이 없다’고 주장할 수 있지만, 시의회가 그렇게 지정했다.”
베일리스 리무에라 중개인 스티브 코어버는 홍수 위험 지역으로 지정된 오클랜드 지역의 재판매 가격 하락을 목격했으며, 절벽 위 부지에도 낙인이 찍혔다고 말했다. 다만 역사적으로 기억은 희미해지며 시장은 정상으로 돌아갈 것이라고 덧붙였다.
코어버는 교외에서 “상당수” 사람들이 2021년이나 2022년에 지불한 가격보다 낮게 판매하는 것을 봤다고 했다. “최근 240만 달러대에 판매한 집이 있는데, 소유주는 2022년경 250만 달러대 제안을 받았으나 거절했다.”
소유주는 기다렸다가 시장이 좋지 않음을 깨닫고 낮은 가격을 수락했다.
웰링턴
웰링턴에서는 주택 소유주들의 삶이 힘들었으나, Tommy’s Real Estate CEO 벤 캐슬은 수도가 최악을 지나고 있다고 본다.
웰링턴은 역사적 고점을 찍은 후 예상보다 긴 대규모 조정을 겪었다. “장기 보유자, 예를 들어 12~15년 보유했다면 긍정적일 가능성이 크다. 최근 4~5년 거래라면 손실 가능성이 높다.”
정점에 과도한 가격을 지불한 것은 아니었으며, 당시가 시장 가치였고, 팬데믹과 경제가 구매자 행동에 영향을 미쳤다.
OCR 인하로 돈이 대거 풀리며 더 많이 빌리고 소비할 수 있게 돼 하이퍼 붐이 발생, 집을 확보하기 위해 더 비싸게 지불했다.
“코로나 이후 해외에서 돌아오는 사람들이 무조건 구입했다. 또 다른 코로나가 올지 불확실해 2021년에도 ‘봉쇄되면 집 없이 귀국하면 어쩌나, 먼저 확보하자’는 생각으로 경쟁이 치열해 매니아 현상이 벌어졌다.”
고점에서 저점으로의 급변은 전례 없었고, 탈피하는 데 시간이 걸렸다. 정부 도시인 웰링턴은 연립정부의 공공 부문 구조조정으로 가장 큰 타격을 받았다. “정상적으로 일하고 고용된 사람이 웰링턴에 1만 명 이상 줄었다.”
이는 실직자뿐 아니라 소매, 접대, 사무실, 임대주 등 다른 부문에도 충격을 줬다. “영향의 꼬리가 상당히 길다.”
캐슬은 도시가 긴 슬럼프를 지나고 있으며 긍정적 신호가 보인다고 말했다. 중간 판매 일수가 줄었고, 슬럼프의 장점은 80만 달러 예산으로 도시 가까운 곳을 볼 수 있게 된 점이다.
해밀턴
와이카토의 해밀턴은 5년간 중간 이익이 34만9000달러에서 23만 달러로 줄었으며, 중간 손실은 4만5000달러였다. LJ Hooker 대표 아론 데이비는 같은 시장에서 사고판다면 ‘손실’이라는 단어를 쓰지 않는다고 했다.
“부동산이 10% 하락했다면 구매하는 것도 10% 하락했으니 손실로 보지 않는다.”
코로나 고점에 구입해 낮게 판 사람들도 시장을 떠나지 않고 재구매하므로, 지불한 금액보다 적게 받더라도 구매도 적게 한다.
데이비는 경매장 상황으로 볼 때 해밀턴 시장이 상승 중이라고 말했다.
“2년 전에는 경매에서 거의 판매되지 않았으나 이제 많은 부동산이 경매로 팔리고, 사전 제안도 수락되는 등 구매자들이 경매를 기다리지 않는 긴급함이 보인다.”
해밀턴은 3년 연속 뉴질랜드에서 가장 빠르게 성장하는 도시로, 주택 수요 압력이 시장 활동을 촉진할 전망이다.
일자리 기회나 오클랜드 탈출로 더 저렴한 곳을 찾는 사람들이 유입되고 있다.
타우랑가
타우랑가는 슬럼프를 피하지 못했으나, Eves Real Estate 베이 오브 플렌티 총괄 마크 리치는 코로나 붐 이후 점진적 하락 후 이제 안정화되고 있다고 긍정적으로 평가했다.
안정은 시장 정점 구입자들의 고통 후 주택 소유주들에게 마음의 평화를 준다.
“팀원들과 이야기하다 보면 ‘감정평가했는데 소유주가 X에 샀으나 이제 그 가치가 아니다’는 말이 나온다.
“그래서 안타깝지만 판매해야 하는 소유주들이 지불한 가격 대비 손실을 보고 있다.”
가능하다면 보유하라고 리치는 조언하며, 터널 끝에 빛이 보이고 이제 그 빛이 보인다고 말했다.
“파파모아 같은 일부 지역은 현재 80만~120만 달러 구간에서 엄청나게 잘 나가고 있다.”
해안 생활과 학교, 해변 접근성을 원하는 사람들이 파파모아의 강한 가족 분위기를 선호한다.
오투모에타이, 마투아, 벨뷰 등 반도 교외도 학교와 CBD, 마운트 망가누이 해변 접근으로 수요 높으나, 오모코로아처럼 먼 곳은 어려움. “은퇴자라면 좋지만 타우랑가 시내 통근이라면 교통 체증에 갇힌다.”
마운트 망가누이 주변 시장은 견고하나 가격이 높아 많은 사람이 포기하고, 파파모아가 혜택을 보고 있다. 100만 달러 예산으로 진입 가능하고 교통 제외 15분 거리다.
크라이스트처치와 웨스트 코스트
남쪽에서는 웨스트 코스트, 캔터베리, 크라이스트처치 재판매자들이 슬럼프를 이겨냈다. 2025년 세 지역 중간 재판매 이익이 2021년보다 높았다.
데이터에 따르면 캔터베리와 크라이스트처치는 5~7% 증가, 웨스트 코스트는 11만3000달러에서 16만 달러로 40% 이상 뛰었다.
그러나 Harcourts Gold의 캐머런 베일리는 크라이스트처치가 다른 곳보다 나았어도 고통이 많았고, 지난 몇 년 가격이 정체됐다고 말했다.
“2021년 구입자들의 집을 아직 많이 판매 중인데, 본전 회수가 어렵다. 2021년 구입 시점이 벤치마크로, 본전 찾기가 도전적이다.”
지진 후 크라이스트처치가 저평가됐던 만큼 회복이 있었고, 코로나 붐에 과도한 가격을 지불했다.
베일리는 큰 이익을 거의 보지 못했으며 시장이 2021년 이후 평평했으나 이제 낙관적 분위기가 느껴진다.
“최악을 지나고 나오고 있다는 느낌이 강하다. 가격 상승은 1년 정도 더 기다려야 할 듯.
고통이 너무 많다. 금리가 내려갔으나 가격에 영향 없었고, 지난해 금리 반토막 났는데 가격 오르지 않았다. 생활비, 세금, 보험 상승으로 나아졌지만 아직 숲을 벗어나지 못했고, 경제가 침체된 탓에 금리 인하가 계속된다.”
웨스트 코스트에서 Greg Daly Real Estate의 디디 데일리는 저렴함 덕에 잘 나간다고 말했다. “50만 달러에 아주 좋은 집을 살 수 있고 다른 지역은 훨씬 비싸 사람たちが 저렴한 생활 위해 이주한다.”
“젊은 가족들이 많이 이주하고, 병원 일자리 때문이 많다.”
인도 등 해외 신규 주민도 임대가 타이트해 구입하고, 사우스 아일랜드 블렌하임, 넬슨 등에서도 온다.
“2년 전보다 가격이 올랐으나 이제 안정화됐고 계속 오르지 않는다. 제자리를 지키고 있다.”
더니든
동해안 더니든의 중간 이익은 33만5000달러에서 23만9000달러로 떨어졌으나, 중간 손실 3만 달러는 2021년과 2025년 동일했다.
Bayleys Dunedin 대표 크리스 맥린은 급변하지 않는 도시로 오랜 안정감을 느꼈다고 말했다.
“중간 가격이 낮아 어려운 시기에도 모기지 유지 쉽거나, 스코틀랜드 기질로 손실 판매 싫어하는지 모르지만, 몇 년간 안정적이고 균형 잡힌 시장이었다.
올해는 작년보다 거래 수가 늘었다. 구매자들은 구매 의향 있으나 포기할 줄 알고, 판매자들은 시장 피드백 듣고 현실적인 사람은 판매한다. 좋은 시장이다.”
더니든은 “작고 모두가 아는 큰 마을”로, 병원과 대학 중심 고임금 일자리가 있다. “큰 도시 소득 일부를 가지면서도 주택 시장은 저렴하다.”
중간 판매 가격 60만 달러 조금 넘으며, 꽤 좋은 집을 산다고 맥린은 말했다.
남쪽 끝 마을들이 최고로, 퀸스타운-레이크스와 사우스랜드 재판매자들이 손실 볼 가능성이 가장 낮았다.
두 곳 모두 손실 비율 3%로 최저 그러나 이익과 손실 규모는 큰 차이.
사우스랜드와 퀸스타운-레이크스
사우스랜드 중간 이익 19만8500달러, 중간 손실 1만6500달러이나, 뉴질랜드 가장 비싼 집들이 있는 퀸스타운-레이크스는 중간 이익 48만 달러(2025년 전국 최고, 2022년 고점 57만 달러보다는 낮음), 중간 손실 10만4000달러였다.
사우스랜드 Todd & Co의 휴이 브리얼리는 인버카길에서 손실 판매가 드물다고 말했다. 안정적 고용과 비슷한 크기 도시 대비 합리적 가격 때문이다. “겨울 날씨가 혹독한 게 유일한 단점이다.”
26년 판매 경험 평균 성장률 8% 조금 넘으며, 안정적 고용과 농촌 커뮤니티 호조, 알루미늄 제련소 덕에 좋은 투자처다.
오클랜드처럼 비싼 집 모기지 위해 3명이 필요 없는, 잘 지어진 합리적 가격 집들이다.
“올해 중간 가격 약 48만1000달러. 첫 주택 구매자는 45만 달러에 괜찮은 3베드룸 집을 살 수 있다.”
브리얼리는 과거 뉴질랜드처럼 쿼터 에이커 꿈이 가능하고 러시아워에 시내 횡단 15분이라고 묘사했다.
퀸스타운 레이크스에서 Walker & Co의 해미시 워커는 코로나 전부터 상승 중이었으나 코로나가 주택 시장에 확실히 도왔다고 말했다.
“최근 5년 뉴질랜드 시장이 어려웠으나 퀸스타운 수요는 계속되고, ‘품질로의 도피’ 현상이 보인다.”
“올해 퀸스타운에서 1억 달러 더 팔았다. 수요가 계속될 것이고, 웹사이트 조회와 방문객 증가를 보면.
최근 몇 달 미국, 호주, 싱가포르에서 크게 늘었다. 싱가포르 사람들은 세계가 뉴질랜드에 투자할 것임을 안다.”
워커는 관광 마을의 재판매 손실이 적은 데 놀라지 않았다. 이주 수요뿐 아니라 산으로 둘러싸여 토지 공급 제한 때문이다.
적은 손실은 잭스 포인트에서 나왔을 가능성으로, 작년 12%가 손실 판매됐다고. 2019~2021년 50% 상승 후 크게 하락했다.
퀸스타운 시장 큰 부분인 오클랜드 구매자들이 오클랜드 판매 어려움으로 활동 줄었으나 작년 중반부터 다시 거래했다.
워커는 코로나 고점 구입 후 재판매 손실 본 사례 하나만 다뤘다. “최근 몇 년 수백 건 중 하나다.”
5백만 달러 집을 살 수 있는 사람들은 보통 급매 필요 없고 적합한 구매자 기다린다고 말했다.
NZ house sale profits in 2025: Who enjoyed the biggest gains and the biggest losses
Agents report widespread hurt among homeowners this year, even in areas like Christchurch, which escaped the worst of the house price slump.
OneRoof and its data partner Valocity analysed settled residential sales between 2021 and 2025 to see how many properties sold for a gross profit and how many sold for a gross loss. The research shows resale profits have largely shrunk after the giddy Covid highs.
The median gain for resellers nationwide dropped from $343,000 at the height of the post-Covid market in 2021 to $250,000 in 2025.
Auckland and Wellington were hardest hit, but some parts of the country did well – unsurprisingly, the country’s wealthiest town, Queenstown, did best, alongside Southland, with Canterbury and the West Coast also defying the slump.
The data shows, however, that the overall nationwide percentage of resale losses climbed from 1% to 12% over the five-year period, and the median loss quadrupled from $11,000 to $50,000.
Some homes gained substantially – such as a Herne Bay mansion which made an $11m profit, on the back of a nearly 10-year hold period.
A property in Whenuapai lost the most, down $4.5m on its sale price after an eight-year hold period, but Wayne Shum, senior research analyst for Valocity, said that could be due to landbanking having gone awry as the property was bought in 2017 before the town in Auckland’s north-west really took off.
“For massive development blocks sometimes, I wouldn’t use the word gamble, but sometimes the infrastructure isn’t there, or the council plan didn’t go your way.”
Shum said in 2019, prior Covid hitting New Zealand, the housing market went up about 5%, making it a pretty standard year, but in 2020, the lockdown, the cutting of interest rates and the suspension of the LVR all played a part in the market’s jump of 20%.
The next year, the market was up again and because of the lockdowns, people were spending up and many were casting their eyes to property.
“The market was a fascination for everyone and shot up throughout 2021 as well before it peaked in 2022, so three good years really compounded about 40% of growth.”
Not a lot of people lost money in housing in the good years, but after the market peak, there were some “really average, below par years” so this year, more people lost money on resale.
Auckland and Wellington saw the percentage of homes reselling at a loss reach almost 20% this year, compared to 2021, when the number was just 1%.
The median resale loss was just over $70,000 for both cities, a far cry from the minuscule losses of 2021, and the median resale gain in both shrank by around 40% over the same period.
Shum says the numbers reflect in part the higher values of the country’s biggest cities, with Auckland’s average value today sitting around $1.25m while Wellington – one of the worst-performing metros since the 2022 market peak – is close to $1m.
Wellington underwent a huge boom, and then a huge bust: “Obviously, the public sector cuts didn’t help,” Shum said. However, he warned against interpreting losses too negatively, as most people were buying and selling in the same market.
“If you’ve got two kids and you want to upsize, well, you might have lost $30,000 on the sale, but the house that you’re moving on to has also got cheaper as well.”
Hold periods also counted, with the data showing the people who lost the most money tended to be selling around the four-year mark, meaning they had bought around market peak. “Generally speaking, the longer you own the property, the more gains you’re likely to realise, subject to nothing bad happening.”
Developers who bought big sites in Auckland for “outrageous” money at the peak of the market, thinking they would put seven or more townhouses there, have found the turn in the townhouse market particularly challenging. “Those sites are worth less now. Some of them had to realise that loss.”
Other resales may have been impacted by the 2023 Anniversary Weekend flooding, Shum said. “If you come to 2025 and you jump on the council website, you see, ‘Oh, that now floods’. But five years ago that wasn’t a concern for a lot of people.
“It’s very transparent now. You can argue ‘It’s never flooded here’ – yeah, it’s never flooded here for you, but the council has tagged it as such.”
Bayleys Remuera agent Steve Koerber said he had noticed Auckland resale prices down in areas deemed flood-prone, and the stigma was there for cliff-top sites as well, although history showed memories faded over time and the market would probably return to normal.
Koerber also said he had observed “quite a few” people in the suburb taking lower prices than they may have paid for the property in 2021 or 2022. “There was one that we sold just recently in the $2.4ms, and the owners had been offered, I think, in the $2.5ms around 2022 and didn’t take it then.”
The owners waited, then realised the market was not as good and were willing to accept the lower price.
Wellington
In Wellington, life has been tough for homeowners, though Ben Castle, CEO of Tommy’s Real Estate, thinks the capital is through the worst.
Wellington climbed to historical heights, then faced a huge correction, which had probably gone on for longer than expected, he said. “I think if you’ve owned a property for a long period of time, maybe 12 or 15 years, you would probably be on the positive side of things. If you were transacting in the last four or five, there’s every chance there could be a loss with it.”
People did not exactly pay over the odds for properties at the peak, as that was the market value at the time, and Castle says the pandemic and the economy played into buyer behaviour.
The OCR was cut with money “really pushed out the door”, so people had the ability to spend more and borrow more, encouraging a hyper boom, which saw people paying more for a property just to get in.
“We had people buying sight unseen who were returning from overseas after Covid. People were so uncertain whether we were going to have another Covid again, so in 2021 people are still thinking, ‘What if we go into lockdown again and we don’t have a house and I’m coming home, so I just want to secure that first.’ That created the competition, which created, for lack of a better word, mania.”
The swing from high to low had never been seen before, and that took time to climb out of, and Wellington, being a government city, had also felt the Coalition’s restructuring of the public sector the most and had seen a lot of pain. “There are over 10,000 fewer people here in Wellington who would normally be working and have employment.”
That was tough not only on the people who lost their jobs but also impacted other sectors like retail, hospitality, offices, landlords and more: “The tail is quite long around the impact of where it actually impacts.”
Castle thinks the city is through the long slog, saying there is more positivity. Median days to sell are down, and the upside of the slump is that people with a budget of around $800,000 were able to look for something closer to the city rather than having to buy way out on the fringes.
Hamilton
In the Waikato, Hamilton saw its median gain decline over the five years, from $349,000 to $230,000, with the median loss sitting at minus $45,000. Aaron Davey, principal/managing director for LJ Hooker says when people buy and sell in the same market he would not use the word loss.
“If their property has come back 10% whatever they are buying has come back 10% as well so I don’t view it as selling at a loss.”
That went for properties bought during the Covid highs, which may have sold for less than the money paid, as those people tended not to exit the market but rebuy, so even if they got less than they paid, they were also buying for less.
Hamilton’s market was on the up, according to what was happening on the auction room floor, Davey said.
“If you look two years ago, of course, almost nothing was selling under the hammer, but now we’re seeing a lot more properties selling under the hammer, and we’re also seeing more pre-auction offers being accepted as well, so there’s a little bit more urgency from the buyers not wanting to wait till auction.”
Hamilton, for the third year running, was the fastest-growing city in New Zealand, and that was going to put pressure on housing, leading to good market activity.
People were coming for job opportunities, or to get out of Auckland and buy something more affordable, he said.
Tauranga
Tauranga had not escaped the slump, with Mark Leach, general manager Bay of Plenty for Eves Real Estate, saying there had been a gradual decline since the Covid boom but that the city was now flatlining, which was positive as it was creating stability.
Stability brought peace of mind for homeowners on the back of a lot of suffering, especially among those who bought at the peak of the market.
“I know just getting around and talking to a lot of our team, some of them will make comments around ‘I did this appraisal and the vendor paid X for it, but it’s not valued at that now’.
“So, yes, in short, unfortunately, we are still seeing some of those homeowners who need to sell and are losing money compared to what they paid.”
If people can hold on, they should, Leach says, saying there is light at the end of the tunnel and they are seeing that light now.
“It’s actually really interesting because some pockets of town, like Papamoa, it’s going ridiculously well at the moment and it’s probably in your $800,000 to $1.2 million price bracket.”
People wanted the coastal lifestyle with access to schools and the beach, and Papamoa now had a strong family vibe.
The peninsula suburbs of Otumoetai, Matua and Bellevue were also in high demand due to schools and easy access to both the CBD and beachside Mount Maunganui, but other areas were struggling, such as Omokoroa, another peninsula that was further away. “If you’re retired and your life is out there, happy days, but if you’re trying to commute into Tauranga city, you’re sitting in queues of traffic.”
The market around Mount Maunganui was solid, but prices were so high that many people had been priced out – but that was Papamoa’s gain because people with a budget around $1m could break in there, and outside of traffic, it was only 15 minutes away.
Christchurch and West Coast
Down south, resellers in the West Coast, Canterbury and Christchurch defied the slump, with median resale gain in all three areas in 2025 higher than what it was in 2021.
According to the data, the increase for Canterbury and Christchurch was around 5 to 7% while in the West Coast the jump was over 40%, from $113,000 to $160,000.
But Cameron Bailey, from Harcourts Gold in Christchurch, said even if Christchurch had performed better than elsewhere, there was still much suffering, and prices had been stagnant for the last few years.
“We’re certainly still selling a lot of houses for people who bought in 2021, and they’ll be struggling to get their money back. 2021 is kind of a benchmark of when you bought a house – it’s challenging to get your money back.”
Christchurch had been so undervalued after the earthquakes; there had been a lot of catch-up going on, and some sales had probably gone up, but people paid over the odds in Christchurch in the Covid boom, just as they did across New Zealand.
Bailey had seen little in the way of gains, saying the market had been fairly flat since 2021, but he was now seeing more optimism in the market.
“There’s a real feel that we’re through the worst of it and coming out the other side, although we’re not thinking prices will go up for another year or so.
“There’s too much pain out there. Interest rates have come down, but we’ve seen that interest rates coming down did not affect prices whatsoever.
“The interest rates have halved in the last year, and prices haven’t gone up. The cost of living is still really expensive, rates have gone up, insurance has gone up. It’s definitely got better, but we’re not out of the woods yet, and the economy is still pretty depressed, which is why they keep doing these rate cuts.”
In the West Coast, Deedee Daly, of Greg Daly Real Estate, said the Coast was doing well because of the affordability factor. “You can get a very nice house for $500,000, whereas other areas are a lot more expensive, so people are moving to the coast for cheaper living.”
“We’re getting a lot of new, young families moving to this area. A lot of them are to come and work at the hospital, which is great.”
Among them were new residents from countries like India, but because rentals were tight, they were buying instead, and people were also coming from other places in the South Island, such as Blenheim and Nelson.
“The prices are more expensive than they were two years ago, so they’ve gone up, but now they’ve sort of plateaued; they’re not going up and up still. It’s just holding its own.”
Dunedin
Over on the east coast, Dunedin’s median gain fell from $335,000 to $239,000, but the median loss of $30,000 remained the same in 2021 and 2025.
Chris Maclean, managing director of Bayleys Dunedin, said there had been an overarching feeling of stability in the market there for a while in a city that tended not to have wild swings.
“I don’t know if because our median price is lower even in troubled times mortgages are easier to maintain, or perhaps we’re a bit Scottish and don’t like selling at a loss, or what the actual story is, but we’ve had a sort of stable and reasonably balanced market for a couple of years now.
“This year has been better than last year in respect of the number of transactions. It’s a balanced market where purchasers are lining up to purchase but will walk away, and vendors who are on board to listening to market feedback, and those who are realistic are selling, so in that respect it’s been a good market.”
Dunedin was like a big village that was “gloriously small, and everyone knows everyone”, but with some well-paid jobs, especially around the hospital and university. “We have that ability to have some of that income of an even bigger city in some sectors, but we’re still a really affordable housing market,” Maclean said.
“I think the stability comes from that even if there’s a job loss or a downgrade one income might be able to service the mortgage, where we hear anecdotally of first home buyers in Auckland with mortgages that are 50% higher than our median sale price.”
The median sale price was just over $600,000, and that bought a pretty nice house, Maclean said.
Towns in the southernmost part of the country did the best, with resellers in Queenstown-Lakes and Southland the least likely to make a loss.
Both locations boasted the lowest share of losses at 3%, though there is a stark difference between the two when it comes to the scale of profits enjoyed and losses endured.
Southland and Queenstown-Lakes
In Southland, the median gain was $198,500, and the median loss was $16,500 but in Queenstown-Lakes, home to some of the most expensive homes in the country, the median gain was $480,000 – that’s the highest nationwide for 2025, even if it was down on its peak of $570,000 in 2022 – and the median loss was $104,000.
Hughie Brierley, of Todd & Co, in Southland, said it was unusual for people to sell at a loss in Invercargill, which had solid employment and reasonable prices compared to other cities of the same size. “The weather can be a bit harsh [in winter], and that’s the only downside really.”
Average growth in the 26 years he had been selling was a little over 8%, making the town a good investment and surviving because of its steady employment and boosted by a rural community doing well as well as the aluminium smelter.
Unlike Auckland, where it might take three people to pay a mortgage on an unaffordable home, houses in Southland were well-built and well-priced, he said.
“I think the median is looking somewhere around $481,000 this calendar year. For your first-home buyer you can buy a pretty tidy three-bedroom home for around $450,000, and that’s a great start.”
Brierley describes the town as New Zealand the way it used to be, with the quarter-acre dream still available and the ability to drive across town in rush hour in 15 minutes.
Over in Queenstown Lakes, Hamish Walker, from Walker & Co, said Queenstown had been on the up prior to Covid, but Covid definitely helped the housing market.
“You see sort of a flight to quality as the market’s been tougher in New Zealand in the last five years, and the demand just keeps on going for Queenstown,” he said.
“I think I sold another $100 million in Queenstown this year alone. I think that demand will only keep going, and then if you look at the growth and the people that are viewing the homes on the website and the foot traffic.
“There’s a huge amount of growth in the last few months from America, Australia and also Singapore because people in Singapore know that the rest of the world is going to be able to buy into New Zealand.”
Walker was not surprised the tourist town had little in the way of resale losses, saying not only did people want to move there, but Queenstown had a cap on land supply because it was surrounded by mountains.
The small resale losses seen probably came from Jack’s Point, where he says around 12% of homes last year were selling at a loss. The market there had increased about 50% from 2019 to 2021, but then dropped a “huge” amount.
Auckland buyers, who make up a big part of Queenstown’s market, had not been active because they had been finding it hard to sell their Auckland properties, only really starting to transact again midway through last year.
Walker said he had only dealt with one sale where people had bought during the Covid high and who lost resale value when they resold: “That’s one out of a few hundred that I’ve sold over the last few years.”
He said that’s partly because people who can afford a $5m property were not usually in a position of having to sell and will sit and wait for the right buyer to come along.
